Best Super Bowl Pool Squares
Doug Drinen, performed an analysis on Sabernomics.com in a post titled “Squares for squares“. He looked at all regular season NFL games from 1994 (when the two point conversion rule was implemented) through 2005. According to his analysis, these are the best squares to have:
- 7-0/0-7 Ending score 3.80% of the time.
- 7-4/4-7 Ending score 3.71% of the time.
- 0-3/3-0 Ending score 3.21% of the time.
- 4-1/1-4 Ending score 2.23% of the time.
- 0-4/4-0 Ending score 2.04% of the time.
A little explanation is required. In the games analyzed, one team had a score ending in 7, while the other team had a score ending in 0, 7.60% of the time. Because there are two 7-0 squares on the board, the 7.60% is divided in half, hence the 3.80% probability of winning.
By the way, the worst possible square is 2-2, this was the ending score only .04% of the games analyzed.
Notes